Dr S C KAR:  Welcome all to today’s chat session. Today’s topic is Climate and Weather Prediction. 
Dr S C KAR:  Dr. S.C. Kar , our expert for the chat session is with us. You are welcome to log on to the chat session and enjoy participating 
vikram: hello sir 
Nathu Ram: Good evening sir 
Dr S C KAR:  hello 
Dr S C KAR:  Let us start 
Nathu Ram: sir can u tell me wht is teh steps involve in climate prediction?
vikram: sir what r the parameters on which u predict about the conditions of weather 
hum tum: hiiiiiiiiiiiiii 
Dr S C KAR:  when we talk of any prediction of weather & climate, we normally involve time and space scale. when you are asking about climate prediction, we should know if you are asking about short-term or long-term
Dr S C KAR:  short-term is in seasonal and long-term is in term of many years 
Dr S C KAR:  hello Sameer, Srinivas and Abhi 
srinivasrao.k: sir why numerical predictions are failed 
Dr S C KAR:  hello srinivas
Nathu Ram: sir wht exactly this shor term 
Dr S C KAR:  numerical predictions do not fail. they are accuarte in short and medium range weather prediction. upto 7 days in advance, we can predict weather using numerical model 
abhi: sir very goodafternoon 
Dr S C KAR:  Nathu, short-term climate prediction is prediction of climate in about one season in advance 
Nathu Ram: sir wht exactly this short term n long term? 
sameer: sir most of the time we listen prediction in the time of cricket matches but most of the timeprediction is not correct ?why 
abhi: what is the difference between shortramge and long range 
srinivasrao.k: what are the primery requirment for weather prediction 
Nathu Ram: o.k 
Nathu Ram: thnaku you sir 
sameer: is there is not high tech technology available in india 
Dr S C KAR:  srinivas, primary requirement of weather prediction is the observed data for initial condition and a good atmospheric model 
rajan: i am told that in america they predict weather very accurately. but in india why we are not able to do that? 
abhi: what is the difference between shortramge and long range
Dr S C KAR:  Sameer, in India, we have high technology for weather prediction. we have supercomputers, good models, and very good observing systems for taking observations 
Bitto: sir, how many models are there for prediction of climate? 
Ashok: Hello Sir 
srinivasrao.k: which type ofmodels r run in India to predict weather in short &long ranges 
navneet tyagi: hello sir
Dr S C KAR:  rajan, weather prediction in tropics is not as easy as in USA, but in India we have made several improvements and weather predictions are becoming better and better 
abhi: sir what is the importance of the hydrostatic and geostrophic balance in NWP
Dr S C KAR:  Welcome Prof. PC Barua 
Ashok: Brefily Describe Vigyan prasar 
abhi: sir what is the importance of the hydrostatic and geostrophic balance in NWP 
rajan: Sir, why is it easy in USA? and not in India. Is it because we do not have good scientist, labs… money… computers? where is the problem? 
Dr S C KAR:  Bitto, normally we use coupled atmosphere and ocean models for predicting climate. Many Insitutions have their own models, and they differ from each other 
Prof P C Barua: 21st Indian Engineering Congress is being organized during 21-24 December 2006 at Guwahati. Lots of our delegates are coming from Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and other places. How is the weather going to affet the morning flights during that time, as schedules of many dignitaries are tightly booked. 
abhi: sir what is the importance of the hydrostatic and geostrophic balance in NWP 
Ashok: whic new technology came in this field 
Dr S C KAR:  Prof. Barua, during this week, weather over Assam region will be fine 
abhi: sir what is the importance of the hydrostatic and geostrophic balance in NWP 
navneet tyagi: what is ARMEX 
Prof P C Barua: Dr Kar, I am asking about December 2006. What would be the fog and other visibility conditions in Delhi and other major airports in India? 
John: hello sir, 
Dr S C KAR:  Rajan, the dynamics for change of weather from place to place vary. In Mid-latitude region (like in USA and Europe, the dynamics is different from that which govern weather over India. Moreover, India is surrounded by developing countries and Ocean where observation is not good 
navneet tyagi: what is ARMEX 
manav: good evening sir… 
abhi: SIR PLEASE ANSWERE MY QUESTION sir what is the importance of the hydrostatic and geostrophic balance in NWP 
Dr S C KAR:  Sorry, Prof. Barua, December 26 is very far, and it is not possible to predict weather over a place on a particular date beyond about 7 days
manav: How our ancestors forecast the weather?
Prof P C Barua: Is it possible to contact you during say 15-20 December 2006? It would be of great help to us. 
Ashok: what’s your main object in weather forcast 
Dr S C KAR:  Abhi, Hydrostatic and geostrophic balance in NWP are vey important. These are among several assumptions made to simplify the governing equations so that we can solve them without compromising on the dynamics of atmosphere 
navneet tyagi: sir what is MM5 model 
John: how can a novice learn about the meteorological information that is required to do a safe voyaging on a small boat in the Indian Ocean 
navneet tyagi: what is the basic use
Dr S C KAR:  Prof. Barua, to know the weather prediction, you can check www.ncmrwf.gov.in after december 20, or can contact me 
jagadish: good eveninig sir
Dr S C KAR:  navneet, ARMEX is one Observation Experiment. it stands fro Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment 
navneet tyagi: sir what is MM5 model 
navneet tyagi: what is the basic use 
Dr S C KAR:  Ashok, can you repreat the question, what is the object in weather forecast 
jagadish: sir what is the primary diff. between tropics& extra tropics weather 
IITM: hello sir 
Ashok: sir i want to say,which main objective u use to find out a soluation for weather forecast 
shambhunath: why forcast isnot aquriate 
Dr S C KAR:  hello Jagadish, Difference in tropics and Extra-tropics weather is that Extra-tropics, the weather dynamics is mostly due to temperature gradient, but in tropics, it is due to latent heat release by convection etc 
Dr S C KAR:  Hello IITM 
jyoti: Sir,what is the prediction of whether in january month in karnataka 
Ashok: sir,tell me main work of Vigyan Prasar in Weather forecast
Mr. Dipu: What are the major reasons of weather reversals in recent times? Assam was known for excess rains and devastating funds. But if you see last 2 years’ records, we are deficient in rains by 50%. We had drought. Why? 
IITM: sir what is the importance of the hydrostatic and geostrophic balance in NWP 
Shreya: hello sir 
shambhunath: hello
Mr. Dipu: Sorry, the word is “floods” not “funds” in my question 
jagadish: how can we conform with drawal of monsoon 
Dr S C KAR:  Ashoka, the basic rule of weather forecast is that if we know present state of atmosphere and the rules which govern the atmospheric motion, we can predict the weather. SO observation to know the state of atmosphere, and a good model describing the rules of motion are required au: hello sir 
Dr S C KAR:  Shambhunath, there are many reasons why forecasts are not accurate. It could be because the initial state is not known well, and also due to our lack of knowledge on different physical processes happening in the atmosphere. However, scientists are continuously engaged in improving the weather forecasts 
Shreya: why mostly prediction fails ?
kimeshkapoor: hi 
Ashok: sir,what is different Indian forcast and other country forcast,they r much advance against us 
Dr S C KAR:  Ashok, Vigyan Prasar does not issue any weather forecast. It is involved in popularizing science among masses 
Dr S C KAR:  hello shreya 
shambhunath: so how long its takes to get that 
Dr S C KAR:  hello kimeshkapoor
kimeshkapoor: hello sir 
Ashok: sir r you consult from other countries for advance technoligies 
Dinesh : Can you give me a very simple definition of el nino and la nina? People talk a lot about these. 
kimeshkapoor: why rain comes in winter when we donot need it 
Dr S C KAR:  Mr. Dipu, Climate pattern is aloways on change, and there are interannual, and decadal variability. So some years in a row we may have floods, and some years, we may have droughts. So, recently what we see may be a part of natural climate variability or could be because of climate change due to anthropogenic emissions 
au: sir what is the effect of sealevel raise over Indian region 
pdpujari: good evening sir 
pdpujari: can we download the models of predictions from the net 
rajan: This year the weather seems to be devient from the norm. The winter is still hot. Is it do with global wrming? 
Dr S C KAR:  Ashok, if you see the weather forecasts for India from other advanced country, it will be the same as that we produce in India. That is because, when development takes place in science, we all read and come to know about it, and we implement it. , so weather forecasts for India obtained at USA or Europe are the same as what we obtain here, and sometimes our forecasts for India are better than them as we use some more Indian data 
manav: why most of time our predicitions turnout to be wrong? 
Dr S C KAR:  Dinesh, elnino is a warmer sea condition in eastern Pacific Ocean and lanina is the cooler sea temperature over the same region 
Ashok: sir,mostly we see the Details r given by you less accurate why?
manav: plz. answer my question sir 
Dr S C KAR:  pdpujari, some weather forecast models (specific for regions) are available in the net 
rajan: sir can you please answer my quesstion? 
Dr S C KAR:  au, due to sealevel rise, some lowlying areas of India will be affected, places like eastcoast of India will be affected more 
jyoti: sir,can you please answer my question
manav: how one can forecast the weather using your five senses?
ccmacs-Dr.gowda: hello sir 
Ashok: sir,tell me r you belive,our atmosphere depends on Planets working areas 
manav: how one can forecast the weather using your five senses?
Dr S C KAR:  rajan, the predictions from models for this winter is that it will be normal winter this year. winter has just begun, and let us see 
manav: *****how one can forecast the weather using your five senses?
Dr S C KAR:  Hello Dr. Gowda 
Mansi: Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat, Maharashtra are experiencing abnormal rains and floods. Has the weather pattern of our country really changed to a large extent? 
sita: what is the diff between fog and due 
ccmacs-Dr.gowda: in t80 model how much data sets are operational 
sita: dew* sorry 
sita: fog and dew? 
Dr S C KAR:  Jyoti, please ask your question again 
Dr S C KAR:  Mansi, Analysis of rainfall data over India do not suggest any large change over India
Dr S C KAR:  Mansi, What we notice from year to year could be due to natural climate variability 
navjoti: what is the cause of heavy rain in Rajasthan region this year 
ccmacs-Dr.gowda: what will be the minimum temp this winter over delhi 
Dr S C KAR:  Dr. Gowda, In the model, we use all the observed data that are available through GTS and we also download several sets of satellite data 
manav: how one can forecast the weather using your five senses? 
manav: how one can forecast the weather using your five senses?
Dr S C KAR:  Dr. Gowda, we can not predict minimum temp. over delhi in this winter. Only what we can say is that weather winter temp. will be normal or above or below normal 
Ashok: sir, r you working some other projects,if yes tell the name plz,that’s useful for us 
jyoti: what will be the whether condition in karnataka on january month 
ccmacs-Dr.gowda: sir can you tell me which satellite data is more usefully in predicting monsoon 
Dr S C KAR:  Manav, I am not sure if one can forecast weather using five senses. I do not know 
Dr S C KAR:  SIta, fog is a lowlevel cloud whcih affects visibility 
jagadish: what is cloud burrest ? why it occures in metros only 
Dr S C KAR:  Jyoti, weather conditions for January can not be predicted from now for any place. what can be said though is if conditions as a mean sense will be normal, below normal or above normal 
sarkar: Goodevening sir 
Dr S C KAR:  Hello Sarkar 
Dr S C KAR:  Jagadish. Cloud bursts do not occur only on metros. There are instances when it has occured in several otehr locations including in Himachal few years back
jagadish: can we predict cloud burrest in advance? 
Dr S C KAR:  Dr. Gowda, for predicting monsoon, we need as much data as available to define intial atnospheric state in addition to understanding the monsoon process. both geostationary and polar orbitting satellite data are useful 
sarkar: why percent of success is very less 
Dr S C KAR:  Jagadish, we can predict cloudburst using very high resolution models about 2 days in advance
manav: How our ancestors forecast the weather?
Dr S C KAR:  Ashok, i dont understand your question, why u ask if I work on other projects
Dr S C KAR:  Manav, our ancestors could forecast weather very short-time in advance only by watching behaviour of animals, bird, and some plants. but mor often, they were not correct 
jagadish: why cyclones are formed only in pre & post monsoon months only in Bay&why those r moved in n-w-n direction? 
soni: hai cheenu 
Dr S C KAR:  jagadish, there are certain preconditions to be fulfilled for formation and growth of cyclonic storms, one majot precondition is that sea surface temp. should exceed a threshold value. these conditions are met in pre- and post monsoon month over Bay 
jagadish: why s-w sector recives lought of rain than other quartnates? 
soni: particularly What type of data is required to forecast the weather from the current state of the atmosphere? 
kinkini: hello sir 
cheenu: why there is hole in the ozone over poles when there is no one to use CFCs 
aman: why this year winter is comming so late? 
kinkini: what is the history of weather forecasting? 
Dr S C KAR:  jagadish, there are several research papers on why s-w sector get lot of rain, i think it will not be possible to explain the process through thechat session 
aman: hallo sir
Dr S C KAR:  hello aman, winter is not very late, already these days, we are receiving snow and rain in Kashmir and temperature in delhi is going to fall in coming days 
aman: hallo sir 
cheenu: Sir , this year nov month is warmer than previous year . Is it because of global warming 
soni: sir plz. answer my question i m surfing frm cybercafe specially for this chat 
soni: and u hv not answer my question 
aman: we are not felling as cold as we used to
cheenu: what is el-nino
soni: how one can forecast the weather using your five senses?
Dr S C KAR:  cheenu, due to montreal protocol, use of cfc has reduced. but there are still some use of it. moreover, these gases are very stable and they remain in atmosphere for long period 
rohit: Can wind affted weather- Navneet Kumar Gupta 
jagadish: what is rain shadow region ? why normally Rajastan recives less rain fall though there is high humidity?
aman: we still not using warm cloths 
Dr S C KAR:  soni, we need temperature, wind and moisture data at various heights in atmosphere so that we can predict the weather correctly 
cheenu: but plz give me the reason for my question. 
aman: hallo sir 
cheenu: hellow aman 
Dr S C KAR:  cheenu, elnino is a condition in eastern pacific ocean when the temperature of sea water is warmer than normal. 
Dr S C KAR:  soni, i do not know if we can predict weather using five senses 
aman: is this type of weather will be remain 
jagadish: what is rain shadow region ? why normally Rajastan recives less rain fall though there is high humidity? 
aman: hallo sir
Arvind: Hi
aman: halloooooooooooooo
rajan: as there are many students in the chat session; can you also tell about studies; courses and so on?
Dr S C KAR:  jagadish, rainshadow region is the region where we receive less rainfall compared to neighboring regions. this could be due to presence of mountains to block the moist airflow. for example, Tamilnadu region gets less rain during southwest monsoon 
cheenu: what is short range weather forrcasting? 
Dr S C KAR:  rajan, this subject is available at MSc, MTech, and Ph.D level in many univeristies, IITs, and IISc 
Arvind: Sir how many institutes in India are working in atmospheric modling ?
cheenu: what is global diming? 
Arvind: Sir what is T80 model? 
Dr S C KAR:  arvind, there are several institutes, universities which are involved in atmospheric modeling. NCMRWF, IITM, IISc, IIT Delhi and many univeristies are engaged in the research and development 
Arvind: what are parameters which affects regional modeling? 
cheenu: why it rained so heavily in rajistan 
Dr S C KAR:  Arvind, T80 model is one version f a global weather forecast model at NCMRWF, T80 represents the resolution (horizontal) of the model 
Arvind: why 80? Is it 80 grid points? 
Dr S C KAR:  Arvind, in T80, T stands for tringular truncation, 80 stands for number of waves 
Dr S C KAR:  Cheenu, Short-range forecasting is the weather forecast valid upto 48 to 72 hours 
Arvind: Sir what are these waves? 
Dr S C KAR:  arvind, for modeling purpose, it is assumed that all the basic variables can be expressed as if waves, and truncation is used so that we retain all the waves upto wave number 80 
Dr S C KAR:  Thank you very much for joining us in the Chat session. If you have any further querries, please contact me at sckar@ncmrwf.gov.in 
Arvind: Sir, what is the difference between climatology and meteorology? 
soni: thanks sir